PERAMALAN JUMLAH PRODUKSI AIR BERSIH PDAM TIRTA OGAN MENGGUNAKAN FUZZY TIME SERIES
Daftar Isi:
- Forecasting process is very important in the time series data as required in decision-making and see the level of accuracy. This research aims to predict the production of clean water in PDAM Tirta Ogan using Fuzzy Time Series. The value that is used in forecasting Fuzzy Time Series is a fuzzy set of the real numbers over a specified set of rules. Fuzzy sets can be defined as a class of numbers with vague boundaries. PDAM Tirta Ogan as one of the company that is responsible to provide of clean water production demand in Ogan Ilir, require long-term planning is necessary to determine the amount of water supply for the next period. The data used is in the form of monthly data of water production from January 2007 to December 2014. Every month the demand of clean water fluctuate in Ogan Ilir, it is necessary for forecasting to determine the amount of the water supply for the coming period. From calculations use Fuzzy Time Series method of clean water the total production for 2015 is 1,914,926.088 m3. Accuracy rate is calculated using the MAPE and MSE and from the analysis of the data is obtained MAPE and MSE amounted to 7.074% of 152,254,909.4.