Analisis Time Series untuk Meramalkan Jumlah Penjualan pada Yamaha Mataram Sakti Kebumen dengan Metode Tren
| Main Author: | Tutut Indriastuti |
|---|---|
| Format: | Bachelors |
| Terbitan: |
STIE Putra Bangsa
, 2018
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: |
http://lib.stieputrabangsa.ac.id:80/index.php?p=show_detail&id=7056 http://lib.stieputrabangsa.ac.id:80/repository/153300577.pdf |
Daftar Isi:
- The general problem for motorcycle dealers is the intense competition as part of efforts to maximize the profit generated. Other problems will arise when the dealer has unstable sales and supply targets. Therefore, the management must plan and prepare motorcycle sales for the future. Should the dealer to forecast assistance the dealer in making decisions and take advantage of market opportunities in the future. Analysis used in this research was time series analysis by using trend method of semi mean method, least squares method, quadratic method, and exponential method. The object of this research was Yamaha Mataram Sakti Kebumen dealer with data of motorcycle sales amount in 2017. The results of the average semi-trend forecast in January and February of 2018 were 27 units and 27 units for cash sales, in addition to 62 units and 62 units for sales on credit. The forecast results of the least squares trend method forecast were 18 units and 18 units for cash sales, and as many as 73 units and 75 units for sales on credit. The results of the quadratic trend forecast method were 21 units and 23 units for cash sales, in addition to 48 units and 38 units for sales on credit. On the other hand, the results of the exponential method forecast were 17 units and 17 units for cash sales, and as many as 47 units and 45 units for sales on credit. The method that has the smallest error value was the method that has the best performance in forecasting. The smallest error forecasting value from cash sales using MAE was the least squares method, MSE was the quadratic method, and MAPE was the exponential method. On the other hand, the smallest error value of selling on credit used MAE were the semi-average method and the quadratic method. While the smallest error value of MSE and MAPE was the least squares method. Keywords: Competition, dealer, forecasting, time series analysis.