Skill of Warige as A Seasonal Climate Forecast in Lombok, Indonesia
| Main Authors: | Yasin, Ismail, Mahrup, Mahrup, Ma'shum, Mansur, Idris, Muhamad Husni |
|---|---|
| Format: | BookSection PeerReviewed Book |
| Bahasa: | eng |
| Terbitan: |
Mataram University Press
, 2016
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: |
http://eprints.unram.ac.id/13969/1/No14_prosiding_semnas_icst2016_makalah_p202_206.pdf http://eprints.unram.ac.id/13969/ |
Daftar Isi:
- Seasonal climate variability has a pronounced effect on the agricultural sector in Lombok. A seasonal climate forecast model based on indigenous knowledge was implemented and tested its forecast skill. The seasonal climate forecast implements the day of “tumbuk” (overhead sun) in Lombok (8.5o S) which is associated with moon phases. If overhead sun corresponds to crescent (6th), it is predicted to have above normal rainfall for in coming season. If overhead sun is on a full moon phase (16th), it is predicted to have normal (average) rainfall, and when overhead sun falls on last quarter or waning phase (26th), rainfall tend to be below normal or dryer than average. The data used were a 60 year monthly rainfall data over Lombok Island. Java Calendar available at http://kalenderjawa.com was applied to find out moon phase at overhead sun since year 1950. Verification of forecast using 60 year monthly rainfall data in Lombok shows a significant differences of seasonal rainfall of wet years compared to dry year. Forecast skill Analysis using LEPS method shows skill score ranged from 3,6 to 24.meaning that forecasting capability of Warige quite accurate for Lombok Island’s rainfall. It is strongly recommended exploring the possibility of basic principle of Warige to be applied in broad areas of Indonesia which have similar geographical condition with the original area of Warige in Lombok.