Prediksi Curah Hujan Dan Aplikasinya Untuk Kekeringan Meteorologis
| Main Authors: | Haries Satyawardhana, Bambang Siswanto, Adi Witono |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Bahasa: | ind |
| Terbitan: |
Pusfatsatklim
, 2010
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: |
http://repository.lapan.go.id//index.php?p=show_detail&id=3959 http://repository.lapan.go.id//lib/phpthumb/phpThumb.php?src=../../images/docs/pros2010.PNG.PNG |
Daftar Isi:
- The research is based problems of food insecurity due to drought and the need climate projections to anticipate. The use of remote sensing data has the coverage area extensive, high temporal resolution than in situ data into the right choice. The purpose of this study to predict rainfall and drought to apply for based on TRMM satellite data. The main objective of obtaining information on the level and timing of drought based on TRMM satellite data. The calculation of drought method used Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). SPI method is a model to measure the lack of rainfall in different periods under normal conditions. Rainfall prediction used Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). The result of rainfall from the TRMM satellite data tend to under estimate for all locations in Java, with correlation values from 0.55 to 0.89. The results rainfalls predict in Java with ANFIS have an average error value of 40% for prediction of 6 months. For the prediction of 3, 5 and 12 months worth of error is higher. Dry season of error values the greater. The projection of rainfall can be used tocalculate the value of SPI. SPI values less than -1 illustrates the potential meteorological drought occurred in July-August 2009 in Java. Based on the prediction of rainfall from October 2010-March 2011, the month in Java is not potentially for meteorological drought.
- Hal. 220-226