Future Natural Gas Price Prediction In Indonesia Using Netback Iviarket Value Method
| Main Author: | Bustan, M. Djoni |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article PeerReviewed application/pdf |
| Terbitan: |
Kyoto University
, 2011
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: |
http://eprints.unsri.ac.id/1401/1/futurenaturaralgas.pdf http://eprints.unsri.ac.id/1401/ |
Daftar Isi:
- Natural gas prices in most countries are determined based on crude oil prices. The natural gas price may not reflect the actual cost especially when crude oil prices spike sharply. This study employed the netback market value (N-MV) method to calculate natural gas price using weighting factors for competitive fuels of each sector. From data for 2000 — 2009. it was found that natural gas in Indonesia was sold to end users in the domestic market at average prices 15% - 96% cheaper than the calculated market values, and 16% - 145% lower than the export prices. By using data from Agency Assessment and Application of Energy in Indonesia or Badan Penzkajian and Penerapan Teknologi (BPPT), and adopting N-MV and econometric forecasting methods, future gas market prices are calculated. From the calculation, the netback market value during 2010 — 2015 is 5.22 to 8.86 USD/BTU. The calculated prices are useful to control supply and demand for natural gas, because Indonesia has plans to increase natural gas supply in the domestic market by building an LNCT receiving terminal, which is targeted to be in operation in 2012.