PERAMALAN BEBAN LISTRIK DAERAH ISTIMEWA YOGYAKARTA DENGAN METODE SINGULAR SPECTRUM ANALYSIS (SSA)
| Main Authors: | Utami, Herni, Sari, Yunita Wulan, Subanar, Subanar, Abdurakhman, Abdurakhman, Gunardi, Gunardi |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article info application/pdf Journal |
| Bahasa: | eng |
| Terbitan: |
Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro
, 2019
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: |
https://ejournal.undip.ac.id/index.php/media_statistika/article/view/21173 https://ejournal.undip.ac.id/index.php/media_statistika/article/view/21173/16466 |
Daftar Isi:
- This paper will study forecasting model for electricity demand in Yogyakarta and forecast it for 2019 until 2024. Usually, electricity demand data contain seasonal. We propose Singular Spectral Analysis-Linear Recurrent Formula (SSA-LRF) method. The SSA process consists of decomposing a time series for signal extraction and then reconstructing a less noisy series which is used for forecasting. The SSA-LRF method will be used to forecast h-step ahead. In this study, we use monthly electricity demand in Yogyakarta for 11 year (2008 to 2018). The forecasting results indicates that the forecast using window length of L=26 have good performance with MAPE of 1.9%.