Performance of Exports of Primary Commodities Towards Inflation and Exchange Rate In The Pandemic Era In Indonesia: The Prebisch Singer Hypothesis Approach: Sebelas Maret University
| Main Authors: | Sritrisniawati, Shella Elly, Evi Gravitiani |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article info application/pdf eJournal |
| Bahasa: | eng |
| Terbitan: |
IPB University
, 2021
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: |
http://journal.ipb.ac.id/index.php/jekp/article/view/39061 http://journal.ipb.ac.id/index.php/jekp/article/view/39061/23000 |
Daftar Isi:
- Perdagangan internasional berkonstrubusi penting dalam perkembangan ekonomi suatu negara. Salah satu pendekatan ekonomi yang fokus pada harga komoditas yaitu Raul Prebisch dan Hans Singer atau sering disebut Hipotesis Prebisch-Singer. Dengan adanya fenomena pendemi COVID-19 berdampak pada lemahnya ekonomi dunia. Tujuan penelitian untuk menganalisis hubungan jangka panjang dan kausalitas antara ekspor komoditas primer dalam penentuan harga serta untuk memaparkan kondisi pandemi sesuai dengan hipotesis tersebut. Penelitian ini menggunakan dua metode yaitu Cointegration dan Granger Causality. Variabel yang digunakan nilai volume ekspor dari beberapa komoditas primer terhadap inflasi dan nilai tukar. Pada periode bulanan dari tahun 2019-2021. Hasil estimasi menunjukkan hubungan searah antara nilai ekspor komoditas primer dengan inflasi dan juga pada nilai tukar. Hubungan jangka panjang tidak sesuai dengan Hipotesis Prebisch Singer. Pandemi COVID-19 mengakibatkan tingkat kinerja ekspor komoditas primer terganggu karena pembatasan kegiatan ekonomi (lockdown). Sehingga mengakibatkan tingkat harga komoditas primer mengalami penurunan sementara dan akan kembali stabil dimasa mendatang.
- International trade plays an important role in the economic development of a country. One economic approach that focuses on commodity prices is called Raul Prebisch and Hans Singer or often the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis. The COVID-19 pandemic has had an impact on the weakness of the world economy. The purpose of this study is to analyze the long-term and causality between exports of primary commodities in prices and to describe the pandemic conditions in accordance with this hypothesis. This study uses two methods, namely Cointegration and Granger Causality. The variables used are the value of the export volume of several primary commodities on inflation and exchange rates. In the monthly period from 2019-2021. The results show a unidirectional relationship between the value of primary commodity exports with inflation and also on the exchange rate. Long-term relationship is not in accordance with the Prebisch Singer Hypothesis. The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in the disruption of the level of economic activity (lockdown). As a result, the primary price level has decreased and will return to stability in the future.