Dampak ACFTA (ASEAN-China Free Trade Area) Terhadap Trade Creation Dan Trade Diversion Indonesia Di Kawasan ACFTA+3
| Main Authors: | dewi, Siti khamila, Sahara, Sri Mulatsih |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article info application/pdf eJournal |
| Bahasa: | eng |
| Terbitan: |
IPB University
, 2019
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: |
http://journal.ipb.ac.id/index.php/jekp/article/view/29879 http://journal.ipb.ac.id/index.php/jekp/article/view/29879/20497 |
Daftar Isi:
- Indonesia terlibat aktif dalam jejaring kerjasama Free Trade Area (FTA), salah satunya dengan menjadi anggota pada ASEAN-China FTA atau dikenal juga dengan ACFTA. Studi ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis faktor yang memengaruhi nilai impor Indonesia dan mengetahui dampak ACFTA terhadap trade creation dan trade diversion Indonesia. Penelitian menggunakan pendekatan model panel data dengan data sekunder selama periode tahun 2000 hingga 2018 yang dikumpulkan dari WITS, WORLD BANK, UNCTAD, dan CEPII. Hasil empiris menunjukkan bahwa setelah ACFTA diberlakukan, nilai impor Indonesia dari negara-negara anggota ACFTA mengalami kenaikan. Nilai impor Indonesia secara signifikan dipengaruhi secara positif oleh GDP per kapita Indonesia, GDP per kapita mitra dagang (negara ACFTA+3), dan jarak ekonomi antar negara. Sementara nilai tukar riil antar negara berpengaruh negatif terhadap nilai impor Indonesia. Secara keseluruhan Indonesia diduga mengalami kerugian dari adanya ACFTA akibat terjadinya trade diversion dari negara non-anggota ke negara-negara anggota di wilayah ACFTA +3.
- Indonesia actively involves in Free Trade Area (FTA), such as FTA between ASEAN and China or also known as ACFTA. The study aims to analyze the factors influencing the value of Indonesia's imports and determine the impact of ACFTA on Indonesia's possible trade creation and trade diversion. The study employs the panel data model on secondary data, collected from 2000 to 2018, from WITS, WORLD BANK, UNCTAD, and CEPII. The empirical results show that after the ACFTA enacted, the value of Indonesia's imports from ACFTA member countries increased. The value of Indonesia's imports was significantly and positively influenced by Indonesia's GDP per capita, GDP per capita of trading partners (ACFTA + 3 countries), and economic distance. Meanwhile, the real exchange rate between countries negatively affected the value of Indonesia's imports. Overall, Indonesia is expected to suffer losses from the ACFTA due to the occurrence of trade diversion from non-member countries to member countries in the ACFTA +3 region.