Projection of Air Temperature Trend in East Java Based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 Scenario
| Main Authors: | Prayoga, Tegar, Arifianto, Fendy, Arno, Giarno |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article info application/pdf eJournal |
| Bahasa: | ind |
| Terbitan: |
Centre for Research and Development on Social, Economy, Policy and Climate Change
, 2023
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: |
http://ejournal.forda-mof.org/ejournal-litbang/index.php/JAKK/article/view/7411 http://ejournal.forda-mof.org/ejournal-litbang/index.php/JAKK/article/view/7411/pdf http://ejournal.forda-mof.org/ejournal-litbang/index.php/JAKK/article/downloadSuppFile/7411/1350 |
Daftar Isi:
- Changes in the pattern and intensity of climate parameters, including air temperature, can be used to detect climate changes. It is very important to study air temperature trends related to climate change in East Java because this region is one of the provinces that contributes the largest rice production in Indonesia. Food security is negatively impacted by climate change. The research aims to determine changes temperature trend in detail on a regional scale. Climate change detection is carried out by analyzing the air temperature index issued by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). Apart from looking at current conditions, this study examines projected future temperature trends using the RCP 4.5 scenario. RCP 4.5 is the scenario that most closely describes current climate conditions. Based on the research results, MPI-ESM-LR is the model that has the best accuracy compared to other methods. The air temperature index for the baseline period (1991-2020) shows an increasing trend of several significant intensity indices (p<0.05) at the maximum and minimum temperatures, which causes the air temperature during the day and at night to increase. The frequency index (TN10p TN90p, TX10p, and TX90p) shows a warming trend and several regions experience a significant upward trend. The projection period (2021-2050) shows an increasing trend in most of East Java and several indices such as TNn, TXn and TX90p show an increasing trend of warming which is higher than the baseline period.
- Perubahan pola dan intensitas parameter iklim salah satunya yaitu suhu udara dapat mengindikasikan terjadinya perubahan iklim. Kajian tren suhu udara yang berkaitan dengan perubahan iklim di Jawa Timur sangat penting untuk dilakukan karena wilayah ini merupakan salah satu provinsi penyumbang produksi padi terbesar di Indonesia. Perubahan iklim berdampak buruk pada ketahanan pangan. Deteksi perubahan iklim dilakukan dengan analisis indeks suhu udara yang dikeluarkan oleh Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). Berdasarkan hasil penelitian, MPI-ESM-LR menjadi model yang memiliki akurasi terbaik dibanding metode lain. Indeks suhu udara periode baseline (1991-2020) menunjukan adanya peningkatan tren beberapa indeks intensitas yang siginifikan (p<0,05) pada suhu maksimum maupun suhu minimum yang menyebabkan suhu udara siang hari maupun malam hari semakin meningkat. Indeks frekuensi (TN10p, TN90p, TX10p, dan TX90p) menunjukan adanya tren pemanasan dan beberapa wilayah mengalami tren kenaikan yang signifikan. Periode proyeksi (2021-2050) terdapat adanya kenaikan tren hampir di sebagian besar wilayah Jawa Timur dan beberapa indeks seperti TNn, TXn dan TX90p menunjukan adanya peningkatan tren pemanasan yang lebih tinggi dari periode baseline.