ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE BASED ON ANNUAL TREND AND CHANGE OF TEMPERATURE IN MANOKWARI, WEST PAPUA
| Main Authors: | Barung, Femmy Marsitha, Pattipeilohy, Wendel Jan, Muharsyah, Robi |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article info application/pdf eJournal |
| Bahasa: | ind |
| Terbitan: |
Centre for Research and Development on Social, Economy, Policy and Climate Change
, 2021
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: |
http://ejournal.forda-mof.org/ejournal-litbang/index.php/JAKK/article/view/6111 http://ejournal.forda-mof.org/ejournal-litbang/index.php/JAKK/article/view/6111/pdf http://ejournal.forda-mof.org/ejournal-litbang/index.php/JAKK/article/downloadSuppFile/6111/986 |
Daftar Isi:
- A simple climate change assessment is carried out on annual air temperatures including average, maximum and minimum temperatures in Rendani, Manokwari for the period of 1993-2019. Parametric linear regression and nonparametric Mann-Kendall trend test (MK), Modified Mann-Kendall (MMK), Sen's Slope Estimator (SSE)are used to analyze trends and index numbers for analyzing the temperature changes. Homogenity test is performed using double mass curve and assumption of normality in the distribution is also investigated to meet the requirements of the linear regression trend test. There as a significant upward trend in the mean and minimum temperature with a slope of 0.029oC/year and 0.069oC/year, respectively. Meanwhile, the maximum temperature test shows no trend with a slope of 0.009oC/year. Analysis of temperature changes using index numbers shows an increase in annual average temperature of 2.8% or 0.7°C, maximum temperature of 1.2% or 0.4°C, and minimum temperature of 3.1% or 0.8°C. The increase in annual air temperature in Manokwari City can generally be caused by several factors such as El Nino phenomenon, urbanization, population growth, and deforestation.
- Penilaian perubahan iklim secara sederhana dilakukan terhadap suhu udara tahunan meliputi suhu rata-rata, suhu maksimum, dan suhu minimum di Rendani, Manokwari periode 1993-2019. Metode statistik parametrik regresi linier dan non-parametrik uji tren Mann-Kendall (MK), Modified Mann-Kendall (MMK), Sen’s Slope Estimator (SSE) digunakan untuk menganalisis kecenderungan serta angka indeks untuk analisis perubahan suhu. Uji homogenitas dilakukan menggunakan double mass curve dan asumsi normalitas pada distribusi juga diselidiki untuk memenuhi syarat uji tren regresi linier. Terjadi kecenderungan kenaikan yang signifikan pada suhu ratarata dan suhu minimum dengan slope sebesar 0,029oC/tahun dan 0,069oC/tahun secara berturut-turut. Hasil uji suhu maksimum tidak menunjukkan adanya tren dengan kemiringan 0,009oC/tahun. Analisis perubahan suhu menggunakan angka indeks menunjukkan terjadi kenaikan suhu rata-rata tahunan sebesar 2,8% atau sebesar 0,7°C, suhu maksimum 1,2% atau 0,4°C, dan suhu minimum sebesar 3,1% atau 0,8°C. Peningkatan suhu udara tahunan di Kota Manokwari secara umum dapat disebabkan oleh beberapa faktor seperti fenomena El Nino, urbanisasi, pertumbuhan penduduk, dan deforestasi.