TOURIST VISITS FORECASTING AND CARRYING CAPACITY OF BEE JAY BAKAU RESORT PROBOLINGGO
| Main Authors: | Fattah, Mochammad, Utami, Tiwi Nurjannati, Sofiati, Dwi |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article info application/pdf eJournal |
| Bahasa: | ind |
| Terbitan: |
Centre for Research and Development on Social, Economy, Policy and Climate Change
, 2020
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: |
http://ejournal.forda-mof.org/ejournal-litbang/index.php/JAKK/article/view/5696 http://ejournal.forda-mof.org/ejournal-litbang/index.php/JAKK/article/view/5696/pdf http://ejournal.forda-mof.org/ejournal-litbang/index.php/JAKK/article/downloadSuppFile/5696/697 |
Daftar Isi:
- City of Probolinggo offers nine main tourist attractions, such as Environmental Study Park (TWSL), Probolinggo Museum, Dr. Moh. Saleh Museum, Red Church, Tri Dharma Temple, Coastal Fishing Port, Bayuangga Swimming Pool, Olimpic Swimming Pool, and Bee Jay Bakau Resort (BJBR). One of the main destinations with ecotourism concept in Probolinggo city is BJBR. It is important to handle a research about forecasting the tourism visits and carrying capacity to support decision making in BJBR management. The purpose of this study is to analyze the forecasting of the foreign and domestic tourists visits at BJBR and analyze the carrying capacity. Quantitative methods using ARIMA and Winter are used in this study. This study also uses carrying capacity area analysis to analyze the carrying capacity of BJBR. The result shows that BJBR Probolinggo provides varied tourist attractions that affect the number of visits. The best forecasting is Winter method because the forecasting error is smaller than ARIMA method, which is, the average on visiting are 14,866tourist/month or 496 tourists/day. Meanwhile, the carrying capacity of the BJBR is 1,110 tourists/day. The management should consider tourist visit forecasting and the carrying capacity.
- Kota Probolinggo menawarkan sembilan wisata utama yang menarik yaitu Taman Wisata Studi Lingkungan (TWSL), Museum Probolinggo, Museum Dr. Moh. Saleh, Gereja Merah, Klenteng Tri Dharma, Pelabuhan Perikanan Pantai, Kolam Renang Bayuangga, Kolam Renang Olimpic, dan Bee Jay Bakau Resort (BJBR). BJBR dengan konsep ekowisata menjadi salah satu tujuan utama wisatawan. Penelitian tentang ramalan kunjungan wisatawan dan daya dukung kawasan BJBR penting dilakukan untuk pengambilan keputusan yang tepat bagi pengelolaan kawasan wisata ini. Tujuan penelitian adalah menganalisis peramalan jumlah kunjungan wisatawan ke BJBR dan daya dukung kawasan BJBR. Metode yang digunakan adalah kuantitatif dengan analisis ARIMA dan Winter. Analisis daya dukung menggunakan analisis daya dukung kawasan (DDK). BJBR Probolinggo memberikan daya tarik wisata yang bervariasi sehingga mempengaruhi jumlah kunjungan. Peramalan dengan metode Winter merupakan metode terbaik karena menghasilkan kesalahan peramalan lebih kecil daripada metode ARIMA. Rata-rata kunjungan sebanyak 14.866 wisatawan per bulan atau 496 wisatawan per hari. Daya dukung kawasan BJBR per hari adalah 1.110 wisatawan. Peramalan sebaiknya menjadi pertimbangan untuk pengendalian jumlah kunjungan wisatawan yang sesuai dengan daya dukung kawasan.