PROBABILITAS TINGKAT LABA BURSA EFEK INDONESIA PERIODE 1 JULI 1997 – 1 JULI 2011

Main Author: Tomy, G. Soemapradja
Format: Article PeerReviewed Book
Bahasa: eng
Terbitan: Binus University , 2011
Subjects:
Online Access: http://eprints.binus.ac.id/13931/1/0202-1111%2019_AK%20-%20Tomy%20Gurtama%20Soemapradja_setting-ABSTRACT.pdf
http://eprints.binus.ac.id/13931/
ctrlnum 13931
fullrecord <?xml version="1.0"?> <dc schemaLocation="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc/ http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc.xsd"><relation>http://eprints.binus.ac.id/13931/</relation><title>PROBABILITAS TINGKAT LABA BURSA EFEK INDONESIA PERIODE 1 JULI 1997 &#x2013; 1 JULI 2011</title><creator>Tomy, G. Soemapradja</creator><subject>Management</subject><description>Capital market investor should considers whether the higher expected return, the more risk should be taken, to minimize speculative decision. The research objectives are measuring and describes the probability distribution of market return of IHSG, in July 1, 1997- July 1, 2011, according to availability of public data provided by Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX). Classification were made with several considered assumptions, results that the largest probability movements of Indonesian Stock Exchange, represented by IHSG percentage of change, is relatively stable of 89,1%, the cumulative probability of downtrend and market crash is 6.3%, whether the cumulative probability of uptrend and booming is 4,6%. This research results the expected return based on probability distribution is 0.049% per day. Assumed 12% pa of time deposits interest rate or 0.033% per day, it means the market risk premium only 0.17% per day or 6% pa. The Capital market is suitable for risk seeker rather than risk averter or risk normal. But risk averter and risk normal may use other alternative instrument such mutual funds when they want to invest their money into capital market.</description><publisher>Binus University</publisher><date>2011-11</date><type>Journal:Article</type><type>PeerReview:PeerReviewed</type><type>Book:Book</type><language>eng</language><rights/><identifier>http://eprints.binus.ac.id/13931/1/0202-1111%2019_AK%20-%20Tomy%20Gurtama%20Soemapradja_setting-ABSTRACT.pdf</identifier><identifier> Tomy, G. Soemapradja (2011) PROBABILITAS TINGKAT LABA BURSA EFEK INDONESIA PERIODE 1 JULI 1997 &#x2013; 1 JULI 2011. Jurnal Binus Business Review, 02 (02). ISSN 2087-1228 </identifier><relation> http://library.binus.ac.id/Collections/journal_detail.aspx?subject=21&amp;volnoed=Volume 02 / Nomor 02 / November 2011&amp;title=PROBABILITAS TINGKAT LABA BURSA EFEK INDONESIA PERIODE 1 JULI 1997 &#x2013; 1 JULI 2011 </relation><recordID>13931</recordID></dc>
language eng
format Journal:Article
Journal
PeerReview:PeerReviewed
PeerReview
Book:Book
Book
author Tomy, G. Soemapradja
title PROBABILITAS TINGKAT LABA BURSA EFEK INDONESIA PERIODE 1 JULI 1997 – 1 JULI 2011
publisher Binus University
publishDate 2011
topic Management
url http://eprints.binus.ac.id/13931/1/0202-1111%2019_AK%20-%20Tomy%20Gurtama%20Soemapradja_setting-ABSTRACT.pdf
http://eprints.binus.ac.id/13931/
contents Capital market investor should considers whether the higher expected return, the more risk should be taken, to minimize speculative decision. The research objectives are measuring and describes the probability distribution of market return of IHSG, in July 1, 1997- July 1, 2011, according to availability of public data provided by Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX). Classification were made with several considered assumptions, results that the largest probability movements of Indonesian Stock Exchange, represented by IHSG percentage of change, is relatively stable of 89,1%, the cumulative probability of downtrend and market crash is 6.3%, whether the cumulative probability of uptrend and booming is 4,6%. This research results the expected return based on probability distribution is 0.049% per day. Assumed 12% pa of time deposits interest rate or 0.033% per day, it means the market risk premium only 0.17% per day or 6% pa. The Capital market is suitable for risk seeker rather than risk averter or risk normal. But risk averter and risk normal may use other alternative instrument such mutual funds when they want to invest their money into capital market.
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