PERMINTAAN, PENAWARAN, TRANSMISI VERTIKAL HARGA BERAS DAN KEBIJAKAN PERBERASAN DI INDONESIA
| Main Authors: | , Retno Lantarsih, SP.,MP., , Prof. Dr. Ir. Dwidjono Hadi Darwanto., M.S., |
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| Format: | Thesis NonPeerReviewed |
| Terbitan: |
[Yogyakarta] : Universitas Gadjah Mada
, 2012
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: |
https://repository.ugm.ac.id/97930/ http://etd.ugm.ac.id/index.php?mod=penelitian_detail&sub=PenelitianDetail&act=view&typ=html&buku_id=54442 |
Daftar Isi:
- Rice becomes the main staple food and tends to be single in various regions in Indonesia. The availability of rice remains the government's attention because it involves the existence of the nation's dignity and sustainability. This study aimed to assess: (1) demand for rice, (2) supply of rice, (3) vertical transmission of rice prices. In this study, analysis of rice demand and supply used annual time series data in 1971-2008 for Indonesia, in 1983-2008 for the rice-producing area in Java, in 1987-2008 for the rice-producing areas in Indonesia, Sumatera, and Sulawesi. The fluctuations and vertical transmission of rice price analysis used monthly time series data in 1998-2008. To achieve the goals, this research conducted simultaneous equations regression analysis for Indonesia, and regression analysis of panel data through simultaneous equations for the rice-producing areas (in Indonesia, Sumatera, Java, and Sulawesi) Indonesia), each with ECM approach. All data in the rice supply and demand analysis, and in the vertical transmission analysis of rice prices are stationary at first difference, and pass cointegration test. Usage of ECM is able to produce regression models that avoid the spurious regression and able to provide a distinction between long and shortterm elasticity in rice demand and supply analysis. The results showed : (1) in the short run, wheat flour becomes rice substitution in Indonesia. Instant noodle becomes rice subtitusion in rice-producing areas (in Indonesia and Sumatera) in the long and short term. Demand for rice in Indonesia is very responsive to the population in the long and short term. It can be shown that population has a positive effect on rice demand for rice-producing areas (in Indonesia, and Sumatera) in the long and short term, and for the rice-producing area in Java in the long term. Income per capita has a positive effect on rice demand for the riceproducing area in Sulawesi in the long term and short term, and it has a negative effect on rice demand for the rice-producing area in Sumatera in the long term. (2) Rainfall has a positive effect on rice supply for the rice-producing area (in Indonesia, and Sumatera) in the long run. Tecnology has a positive effect on rice supply in Indonesia, in the rice-producing areas (in Indonesia, and Jawa) both in short and long run. The government purchasing price policy has a positive effect on rice supply for the rice-producing area in Java in the short run. (3) Vertical transmission of the retail price of rice to the price of raw rice has been shown in North Sumatera and South Sumatera Provices, while the vertical transmission of the price of raw rice to the retail price of rice has been shown in Lampung, West Java, Central Java, and East Java Provinces. It can also be shown that vertical transmission of the price of imported rice to the retail price of rice in North Sumatera Province is asymmetri.