HUBUNGAN ANTARA PERTUMBUHAN PDRB SEKTOR INDUSTRI MANUFAKTUR DAN INFLASI DENGAN TINGKAT PENGANGGURAN TERBUKA DI KOTA BATAM, 1988-2012
| Main Authors: | , MUSTAJIB, , Dr. Soeratno, M.Ec. |
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| Format: | Thesis NonPeerReviewed |
| Terbitan: |
[Yogyakarta] : Universitas Gadjah Mada
, 2014
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: |
https://repository.ugm.ac.id/130241/ http://etd.ugm.ac.id/index.php?mod=penelitian_detail&sub=PenelitianDetail&act=view&typ=html&buku_id=70656 |
Daftar Isi:
- The relationship of economic indicators that important to be highlighted are unemployment, economic growth, and inflation which reveals the social development and deals with efficiently and effectively to contribute increasing prosperity of the society. This study employs trend analysis, stationary test, co-integration test and causality test by using error correction model to examine development and the relationship of the three variables by using the time series annual data during the period 1988-2012 in the Batam economy. The trend analysis shows that Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) of the manufacturing sector refers cubic trend, for inflation shows the time variable either on linear, quadratic and cubic trends, the models can not explain well. This is due to the variance of the data during the study period were very diverse. The open unemployment rate during period 1988-2012 shows a trend cubic, in early decade of research refer downward trend, but the next the unemployment rate tends to increasing and reaching the highest level in the period 2001-2006 with an average above 13 percent, in despite of decreasing but not significantly so the unemployment rate is still relatively high. Base on results of unit root test that the data of the GRDP for manufacturing sector, inflation as well as the open unemployment rate through the aplication of Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) suggest that all the variables in the model are stationer. A long-run relationship between the GRDP growth of the manufacturing sector with the open unemployment rate and between inflation with the open unemployment rate occur between of them as confirmed by the co-integration test during the period of study. Lastly, Causality test using Error Correction Model (ECM) is conducted to examine the existence of causation in the series. The result is statistically significant indicating that between the open unemployment rate with the GRDP of the manufacturing sector has negatively unidirectional causality, it confirmed that the Okun's law can be used as a reference for analyzing the causality between of them. As well as the causality test between inflation with the open unemployment rate reveals that there is unidirectional relationship of them, it is consistent with the theoretical rational of the Phillips curve states that between inflation and unemployment occurs trade-off.