PENGARUH DINAMIS VARIABEL MAKROEKONOMI TERHADAP TINGKAT KEMISKINAN DAN DISTRIBUSI PENDAPATAN DI INDONESIA
| Main Authors: | , ANTON RAHMANTO, , Prof. Dr. Samsubar Saleh, M.Soc.Sc. |
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| Format: | Thesis NonPeerReviewed |
| Terbitan: |
[Yogyakarta] : Universitas Gadjah Mada
, 2013
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: |
https://repository.ugm.ac.id/125805/ http://etd.ugm.ac.id/index.php?mod=penelitian_detail&sub=PenelitianDetail&act=view&typ=html&buku_id=65984 |
Daftar Isi:
- The purpose of this paper is to analyse the effect of macroeconomic variables i.e., economic growth, government spending and inflation on poverty rate as well as on income distribution in Indonesia. Such influence further estimated dynamically to reveal long-term and short-term effects. An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) and Unrestricted Error Correction Model (UECM) with a \"bound testing for cointegration\" approach is applied to estimate the long-run model and the application model of Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) employing Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) method is applied to estimates short-run model. One finding of this study is that there is no long-run relationship exists between income distribution (Gini coefficient) and selected macroeconomic variables. Such findings may imply that there is no evidence of the existence of a systematic relationship that occurs between economic growth and income distribution, and any consideration of selecting the appropriate proxy for the size of the income distribution becomes crucial. The results of the the long-run model estimation, significantly indicates that there is a long-sun relationship between macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, inflation and state spending to the level of poverty. From the estimation results of the short-run model, error correction term (ECT) variable is significant and valid in explaining the short-run equilibrium relationship, however based on partially inspection, only inflation significantly affect the level of poverty. While the effect of government spending to the level of poverty in the long-run is very small and is not significant in the short run.