Comparison of Single Exponential Smoothing, Naive Model, and SARIMA Methods for Forecasting Rainfall in Medan
| Main Author: | Arnita, Arnita |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article info application/pdf eJournal |
| Bahasa: | eng |
| Terbitan: |
Department of Mathematics, Hasanuddin University
, 2020
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: |
https://journal.unhas.ac.id/index.php/jmsk/article/view/10236 https://journal.unhas.ac.id/index.php/jmsk/article/view/10236/pdf |
Daftar Isi:
- This study aims to compare the best method on the forecasting system of rainfall in Medan using Single Exponential Smoothing (SES), Naive Model, and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) . The data used in this study is rainfall data for 10 years (2009 – 2019). From the simulation by comparing existing method, the best model is SES with and value of MAPE (Mean Absolut Percentage Error) sebesar 2,47%. And then SARIMA (1,01,1)(4,0,3)12 whit value of MAPE is2,93%. Both of this model is high accurate model because value of MAPE resulted < 10%.