Spread of foot-and-mouth disease in Finland - Expert opinion of the extent of spread before the detection of the disease in two different scenarios
| Main Author: | National Veterinary and Food Research Institute |
|---|---|
| Format: | Report Journal |
| Terbitan: |
, 2009
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: |
https://zenodo.org/record/848678 |
Daftar Isi:
- The aim of this work was to elicit an opinion from experts on the probable extent of the silent spread of Foot -and-mouth-disease (FMD) in Finland in an intensive pig production area starting in a pig farm (Ilmajoki) and an intensive cattle herding area starting in a cattle herd (Nivala). The twelve experts involved in the project belong to the permanent group of national experts (epidemiologists, veterinarians and virologists) required by the FMD directive. The assignment consisted of identification and evaluation of major risk factors or spreading the disease in Finnish animal husbandry settings, and the actual estimation of the probable spread based on the risk factors and compiled background information. The most important risk factors were transport of animals (from farm to farm, to the slaughterhouse, carcass disposal), and visits by members of certain professions (e.g. veterinarians) to the farms. Airborne spread was not considered to constitute a significant risk in Finland. The infection was estimated to silently spread to four pig farms and three cattle herds in Ilmajoki area whereas in Nivala it would spread to seven cattle herds and one pig farm. Sheep husbandry is a very minor industry in both areas and the infection was not estimated to spread to sheep flocks in either area. The figures are averages of the twelve expert estimates. The variance in the estimates is satisfactorily moderate. The widest margin in estimates was in the number of infected cattle herds in Nivala area which had a range of 2–15 herds.
- FI; fi; efsafocalpoint@evira.fi