Effects of dispersal barriers in the demarcated area in Alicante, Spain, for Xylella fastidiosa. A non-stationary modelling approach
| Main Author: | Cendoya M, Hube A, Conesa D, Vicent A |
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| Format: | Proceeding Journal |
| Terbitan: |
, 2021
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: |
https://zenodo.org/record/4884611 |
Daftar Isi:
- Spatial models for plant diseases often assume isotropy and stationarity, implying that the spatial dependence is direction invariant and uniform through the study area. However, these assumptions are violated when dispersal barriers are present in the form of geographical features or disease control interventions. The main objective here was to evaluate the influence of different types of barriers in the distribution of Xylella fastidiosa (Xf) in the demarcated area in Alicante, Spain. Occurrence data of Xf from the official surveys in 2018 were analysed with four spatial Bayesian hierarchical models: i) stationary model representing a scenario without control interventions or geographical features affecting Xf spread; ii) model without control interventions but with mountains as physical barriers for Xf spread; iii) model with a continuous or iv) discontinuous cordon sanitaire surrounding the infested area to contain the pathogen. The methodology assumes that barriers are totally impermeable, so they should be interpreted as areas without host plants and in which it is not possible for infected vectors or propagating plant material to pass. The spatial range for the stationary model indicated that host plants being closer than 4.19 km 95%CI (3.01, 5.84) to an infected plant would be at risk for Xf. This distance can be used to define the buffer zone around the infested area in Alicante. The probability of Xf presence in the breaks of the cordon sanitaire was related with the availability of data, being higher in areas of low sampling intensity. These results may assist authorities to prioritize the areas for surveillance and implementation of control measures. To our knowledge, this study is the first applying non-stationary models with barriers in the context of plant health. Nevertheless, new modelling methods need to be developed to accommodate barriers with different levels of permeability.