Forecasting Food grains Area and Production in India using ARIMA Model
| Main Authors: | M. Hemavathi, K. Prabakaran, S. Panchali Meena |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article Journal |
| Terbitan: |
, 2017
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: |
https://zenodo.org/record/262956 |
Daftar Isi:
- The growth rate of agriculture production is generally judged by the performance of food grains and non-food grains production. Food grains area and production in India data for the period of 1950-51 to 2014-15 were analyzed by time series methods. Auto Correlation Function (ACF) and Partial Auto Correlation Function (PACF) were calculated for the data. Appropriate Box-Jenkins Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was fitted. Validity of the model was tested using standard statistical techniques. ARIMA (1, 1, 0) and ARIMA (0, 1, 1) model were used to forecast area and production in India for four leading years. The results also shows area forecast for the year 2019 to be about 124.78 million hectare with upper and lower limit 134.27and 115.29 million hectares respectively. The model also shows foodgrains production forecast for the year 2019 to be about 271.09 million tonnes with upper and lower limit 294.73and 247.44 million tonnes respectively.