Industrial and Commercial Distributed Solar PV Grid Parity Map: Based on the Analysis of 345 Prefecture-Level Cities in China
| Main Authors: | Ying Yang, Jijiang He, Shujuan Wang, Shoubin Yang, Xiaowen Kang, Yang Zhang, Pietro Elia Campana, Jinyue Yan |
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| Format: | Proceeding Journal |
| Terbitan: |
, 2018
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: |
https://zenodo.org/record/2616394 |
Daftar Isi:
- This study focuses on the grid parity capabilities and investment value of industrial and commercial distributed PV projects without state financial subsidies. Based on the different levels of solar irradiation of 345 Prefecture-Level cities, desulfurization coal benchmark electricity prices, on-grid tariffs, and photovoltaic investment costs, the study calculated the PV “User-side Grid Parity Index”(UGPI) and “Plant-side Grid Parity Index” (PGPI) with no financial subsidies at national and regional levels. Both the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) and Levelized Profit of Electricity (LPOE) are proposed and calculated, respectively. In addition, the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and the Discounted Payback Period (DPBP), as the investment appealing metrics, are analyzed in conjunction for a clearer picture of the profitability potential without external subsidies. Under the same circumstances of the following assumptions: PV system investment (roof rental costs, PV modules, supporters, inverters, wirings, labor wages, loan interest, insurance), operating costs (operation and maintenance, inverter replacement every decade), all the 345 Prefecture-Level cities could achieve UGPI and about 81 cities (23.5%) have reached the PGPI. Among them, Tibet, Hainan, Shandong, Hebei, Jilin, and Heilongjiang have the highest parity level with Chongqing, Guizhou and Sichuan worst cases. The average LCOE is 0.419 CNY/kWh, which is about 53% of the global average price. The LPOE is 0.137 CNY/kWh. Six Prefecture-Level cities in Tibet have the highest net revenue with cities of Sichuan, Chongqing and Xinjiang ranking last 10%. In terms of IRR, 87.8% of all the analyzed cities has an IRR greater than 8%, which reveals a profitable probability assuming the loan interest rate of 8%. The calculation on DPBP supports this conclusion. The sensitivity analysis reveals that electricity production & interest rate, electricity production & electricity market retail price are the most sensitive factors contributing to LCOE and LPOE, respectively.