PERBANDINGAN METODE AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE DAN METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DARI HOLT DALAM MERAMALKAN NILAI IMPOR DI INDONESIA
| Main Authors: | AJUNU, YULINAR I., ACHMAD, NOVIANITA, PAYU, MUHAMMAD REZKY FRIESTA |
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| Format: | Article info application/pdf eJournal |
| Bahasa: | eng |
| Terbitan: |
Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo
, 2020
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: |
http://ejurnal.ung.ac.id/index.php/jps/article/view/5393 http://ejurnal.ung.ac.id/index.php/jps/article/view/5393/2058 |
Daftar Isi:
- As a form of purchased goods from other state’s imports have impacts both positive and negative to the states’s condition; therefore, prediction is required. Employing Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) methods, this study intends to identify which of the methods is the most accurate to predict Indonesia’s import value. The ARIMA method stage involved: data ploting, data stasioneriation, temporary model identification, parameter estimation, test residual assumption, and prediction. Moreover, the Holt’s DES method involved: data plotting, initial value determination, optimal parameter identification, Level Lt and Trend Tt value quantification, andprediction. The result shows that ARIMA method is the most accurate method to predict Indonesia’s import value.